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The Golden Globes Are Back: Here's Who Will Win in the TV Categories

Abbott Elementary, The Crown, and — sigh — Dahmer are all frontrunners at the 2023 Globes.
  • Dahmer — Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story, Abbott Elementary, Wednesday, and The Crown (Photos: ABC and Netflix)
    Dahmer — Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story, Abbott Elementary, Wednesday, and The Crown (Photos: ABC and Netflix)

    After a year off of television following a string of scandals that plagued the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, the Golden Globe Awards return to NBC on January 10. Traditionally, the Globes have been seen as one of the major precursor awards on the road to the Academy Awards. But they have also set themselves apart from the Oscars by handing out awards for movies and television. The Globes' movie categories, while often unpredictable, at least exist within the greater narrative of movie awards season. Their TV awards, however, are truly enigmatic.

    Covering the entire calendar year of TV, the Globes are out of sync with the Emmys calendar and are thus either a year early or a year late for the traditional buzz of TV awards season. This lets the HFPA truly let their freak flag fly — this is the awards body that handed out multiple trophies to Mozart in the Jungle and The Kominsky Method. On the flip side, though, the Globes' tendencies towards chaos picks — and a penchant for choosing the newest, shiniest shows available — can sometimes result in wins that are more adventurous than the Emmys. To name but two examples, Rachel Bloom (Crazy Ex-Girlfriend) and Gina Rodriguez (Jane the Virgin) won Globes while the Emmys, steadfast in their allergy to CW shows, passed them over.

    Predicting the Globes' TV picks can be a fool's errand, but it's also fun to try and divine the direction the HFPA's fondness for chaos will take them. Here's our best shot:

    Best Drama Series

    Better Call Saul (AMC)
    The Crown (Netflix)
    House of the Dragon (HBO)
    Ozark (Netflix)
    Severance (Apple TV+)

    Despite winning four Outstanding Drama Emmys, Game of Thrones never won a Golden Globe, so it would be a bit of a surprise to see House of the Dragon break through here. And the HFPA's penchant for new things probably rules out Ozark and Better Call Saul. In that sense, The Crown reinventing itself every two seasons with a new time period and new cast members is ideal Globes-bait, and indeed that show has won the Drama Series award in two of the last five years. This particular field of nominees seems to be adding up to win number three for the Netflix show, though Severance could be well positioned to play the spoiler. Its newness should appeal to HFPA voters, and it's the best show of the five nominees — which probably won't make much of a difference, but it would be a nice outcome nonetheless.
    Should Win: Severance
    Will Win: The Crown

    Best Actor, Drama

    Jeff Bridges, The Old Man
    Kevin Costner, Yellowstone
    Diego Luna, Star Wars: Andor
    Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul
    Adam Scott, Severance

    The overwhelming star power of Kevin Costner and Jeff Bridges should make them the favorites in this category. Costner is already a two-time Globe winner, for directing Dances with Wolves and for starring in the 2012 miniseries Hatfields & McCoys. Jeff Bridges is another Globes favorite, having won the Cecil B. DeMille Award in 2019. The only reason to doubt a Costner win here would be that HFPA's taste doesn't usually run towards the overly populist. A more refined critical fave like Adam Scott in Severance could capture voters' fancy instead. What would probably make for the better awards-night moment at the podium, however, is if the HFPA made good on their last chance to award Bob Odenkirk on his fifth and final nomination for Better Call Saul. A final-season send-off award is not usually the HFPA's vibe, though it's notable that Jon Hamm won the Globe in this very category for Mad Men's final season. After Odenkirk survived an on-set heart attack and recovered to finish filming the series, a long-awaited award would be a lovely grace note and a nice TV moment.
    Should Win: Bob Odenkirk
    Will Win: Kevin Costner

    Best Actress, Drama

    Emma D'Arcy, House of the Dragon
    Laura Linney, Ozark
    Imelda Staunon, The Crown
    Hilary Swank, Alaska Daily
    Zendaya, Euphoria

    The most impressive performance in this category likely belongs to either Emma D'Arcy or Zendaya, but I don't think HBO is taking this category. Both of The Crown's earlier portrayers of Queen Elizabeth II — Claire Foy and Olivia Colman – won the Golden Globe (as did Emma Corrin in this category for playing Diana in 2020), all of which bodes quite well for Imelda Staunton. You might expect two-time Emmy champion Zendaya to pose the biggest threat to Staunton, but I wouldn't overlook Hilary Swank. Yes, she's starring in a mid-season network drama that's gotten mixed reviews and is in no way flashy or cool. But a two-time Oscar-winning movie star dipping into network television and winning the Golden Globe for a show nobody you know watches, causing your entire Twitter timeline to burst out laughing, seems like classic Golden Globes behavior. It's big "Billy Bob Thornton won for a show called Goliath?!" energy.
    Should Win: Emma D'Arcy
    Will Win: Imelda Staunton

    Best Musical or Comedy Series

    Abbott Elementary (ABC)
    The Bear (FX)
    Hacks (HBO Max)
    Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)
    Wednesday (Netflix)

    Hacks won this award last year, and the last time a musical/comedy series won two years in a row was Glee in 2009 and 2010, so it's likely the voters will be looking elsewhere. The Bear is the critical favorite, and in a just world either that or Abbott Elementary would win. Broadcast networks haven't fared as badly at the Globes as you might think, with semi-recent wins for Brooklyn Nine-Nine and black-ish's Tracee Ellis Ross getting awards here while the Emmys bypassed, so an Abbott Elementary win would actually make a lot of sense.
    Should Win: The Bear
    Will Win: Abbott Elementary

    Best Actor, Musical or Comedy

    Donald Glover, Atlanta
    Bill Hader, Barry
    Steve Martin, Only Murders in the Building
    Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building
    Jeremy Allen White, The Bear

    After two straight years winning this category, Jason Sudeikis won't be winning a third, as Ted Lasso didn't air new episodes in 2022, so we're bound to have a new champion here. Donald Glover won this award way back in 2016, while Hader, Martin, and Short have all been recently nominated but haven't won. Which leaves Jeremy Allen White, who fits perfectly into HFPA's tendencies to vote for the newest thing, while also being a critically lauded and incredibly deserving performer, so that would work out nicely.
    Should Win: Jeremy Allen White
    Will Win: Jeremy Allen White

    Best Actress, Musical or Comedy

    Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary
    Kaley Cuoco, The Flight Attendant
    Selena Gomez, Only Murders in the Building
    Jenna Ortega, Wednesday
    Jean Smart, Hacks

    Jean Smart won this award last year, but since 2000, only Sarah Jessica Parker, Tina Fey, and Rachel Brosnahan have won back-to-back. She's still the cream of the crop when it comes to this category, but it's worth looking at who the HFPA's wandering eye might move towards. Both Quinta Brunson and Selena Gomez are worthy nominees who have arguably been overlooked when it comes to their performances on their respective shows. But that Jenna Ortega nomination really stands out as a particularly Globes-y option. Wednesday is gleamingly new, it's a hit, it's from Netflix, which always campaigns strongly; and Ortega herself is something of an actress of the moment, weeks away from starring in her second Scream movie.
    Should Win: Jean Smart
    Will Win: Jenna Ortega

    Best Limited Series or Anthology or Television Film

    Black Bird (Apple TV+)
    Dahmer — Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story (Netflix)
    The Dropout (Hulu)
    Pam & Tommy (Hulu)
    The White Lotus (HBO)

    Both The Dropout and Pam & Tommy were big players at the Emmys, but they very much feel like old news in this category. Black Bird getting a few unexpected nominations feels like Apple's reward in and of itself. So this category is going to come down to Ryan Murphy versus Mike White. Dahmer was Murphy's 11th hour Netflix surprise hit, the success of which made everybody feel kinda grimy. Meanwhile, The White Lotus Season 2 was a worthy follow-up to an acclaimed first season, full of top-notch performances and well-threaded plots and themes. One is clearly more deserving of the award than others, but "deserving" often has no place at the Golden Globes' TV awards. Hope for the best, but brace for the worst.
    Should Win: The White Lotus
    Will Win: The White Lotus

    Best Actor, Limited or Anthology Series or Television Film

    Taron Egerton, Black Bird
    Colin Firth, The Staircase
    Andrew Garfield, Under the Banner of Heaven
    Evan Peters, Dahmer — Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story
    Sebastian Stan, Pam & Tommy

    Colin Firth, Andrew Garfield, and Sebastian Stan were all Emmy nominees earlier this year, but, as stated above, none of their shows feel recent enough to have caught the HFPA's fancy, despite the fact that Firth and Garfield, especially, gave award-worthy performances. Taron Egerton won a Golden Globe back in 2019 for his performance as Elton John in the film Rocket Man, so the voters are familiar with him and like him. If he wins, don't be too surprised. But the favorite here has to be Evan Peters, who is poised to reap the rewards for Dahmer's success, even if the show itself doesn't win.
    Should Win: Andrew Garfield
    Will Win: Evan Peters

    Best Actress, Limited or Anthology Series or Television Film

    Jessica Chastain, George & Tammy
    Julia Garner, Inventing Anna
    Lily James, Pam & Tommy
    Julia Roberts, Gaslit
    Amanda Seyfried, The Dropout

    Julia Garner's performance as a scammer whose vague, multinational appeal allowed her to maneuver within glitzy monied circles might just be the most appropriate Golden Globe winner of all. But she's got formidable competition, from Emmy winner Amanda Seyfried to the sheer star power of Julia Roberts. The most formidable competition may well be Jessica Chastain. Last year, when Chastain ended up winning the Academy Award for The Eyes of Tammy Faye, the HFPA missed the boat and passed her over in favor of Nicole Kidman. They might want to make up for it this year, and her show is the most recently-premiered nominee.
    Should Win: Amanda Seyfried
    Will Win: Jessica Chastain

    Best Supporting Actor, Musical-Comedy or Drama

    John Lithgow, The Old Man
    Jonathan Pryce, The Crown
    John Turturro, Severance
    Tyler James Williams, Abbott Elementary
    Henry Winkler, Barry

    The supporting categories tend to be a true toss-up. The Globes used to default to pedigreed actors in tony HBO TV movies, but those have been out of fashion for a while. One tendency that's held fast is that with dramas and comedies in the mix, the comedies don't stand much of a chance. Only twice in the last 20 years has an actor from a comedy won this category: Glee's Chris Colfer and Entourage's Jeremy Piven. That tendency might change with the limited series now split off into its own category, but for the time being, the smart money remains on drama. This might open up a path to victory for John Turturro, whose uptight but ultimately rather lovely performance could get the recognition it deserves. That said, without a terribly strong narrative in place for any of these nominees, it's probably wise to bet on a cast member from The Crown.
    Should Win: John Turturro
    Will Win: Jonathan Pryce

    Best Supporting Actress, Musical-Comedy or Drama

    Elizabeth Debicki, The Crown
    Hannah Einbinder, Hacks
    Julia Garner, Ozark
    Janelle James, Abbott Elementary
    Sheryl Lee Ralph, Abbott Elementary

    Whereas the Supporting Actor in a Comedy/Drama category feels like it's lacking for a strong winner's narrative, the Supporting Actress race feels packed with them. Sheryl Lee Ralph and Julia Garner are Emmy winners; Janelle James could be the pick for HFPA voters who clearly like Abbott Elementary but don't want to copy the Emmys. It still feels like Hannah Einbinder is bound to win something during this Hacks wave. And yet, perhaps appropriately, Elizabeth Debicki is likely to tower over everybody else. Emma Corrin won a Globe two years ago for playing Diana, and there's every chance that the voters will respond to the character yet again.
    Should Win: Janelle James
    Will Win: Elizabeth Debicki

    Best Supporting Actor, Limited or Anthology Series or Television Film

    F. Murray Abraham, The White Lotus
    Domhnall Gleeson, The Patient
    Paul Walter Hauser, Black Bird
    Richard Jenkins, Dahmer — Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story
    Seth Rogen, Pam & Tommy

    Here's another category that could go just about anywhere. The very recent airing of The White Lotus puts F. Murray Abraham in a good position, but despite the fact that he delivered a great performance, his character was often overshadowed. Richard Jenkins could conceivably ride a Dahmer wave to a win. But this could also be where Black Bird cashes in on its three nominations. Paul Walter Hauser's performance as a convicted serial killer drew significant acclaim, and the HFPA voters clearly responded to the show.
    Should Win: Domhnall Gleeson
    Will Win: Paul Walter Hauser

    Best Supporting Actress, Limited or Anthology Series or Television Film

    Jennifer Coolidge, The White Lotus
    Claire Danes, Fleishman Is in Trouble
    Daisy Edgar-Jones, Under the Banner of Heaven
    Niecy Nash, Dahmer — Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story
    Aubrey Plaza, The White Lotus

    Coolidge lost this award last year to Sarah Snook of Succession. You could see the voters making it up to her this year with a win, though Aubrey Plaza offers some in-house competition and could actually end up winning herself. On the strength of the performance alone, Claire Danes — a four-time Globe winner for Homeland, Temple Grandin, and My So-Called Life — should be a contender, but seeing as Fleishman Is in Trouble didn't get any other nominations, she probably doesn't stand much of a chance.
    Should Win: Claire Danes
    Will Win: Jennifer Coolidge

    Joe Reid is the senior writer at Primetimer and co-host of the This Had Oscar Buzz podcast. His work has appeared in Decider, NPR, HuffPost, The Atlantic, Slate, Polygon, Vanity Fair, Vulture, The A.V. Club and more.

    TOPICS: Golden Globe Awards, Abbott Elementary, Alaska Daily, The Bear, Better Call Saul, The Crown, Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story, Severance, Wednesday, The White Lotus, Yellowstone, Bob Odenkirk, Elizabeth Debicki, Evan Peters, Hilary Swank, Imelda Staunton, Jenna Ortega, Jennifer Coolidge, Jessica Chastain, John Turturro, Kevin Costner